Will Hurricane Rachel Reach San Francisco? Coastal Flood Advisory, 16-Foot Waves and the Bay Area Weekend Forecast

Hurricane Rachel will not make landfall anywhere near San Francisco, but the storm is already shaping the Bay Area’s weekend: the National Weather Service has issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the San Francisco Bay shoreline from 9 a.m. Friday, October 9, to 3 p.m. Tuesday, October 13, a Beach Hazards Statement warns of breaking waves up to 16 feet from Saturday to Monday, and onshore gusts of 30 to 40 mph are forecast along the coast on Saturday, the busiest day of Fleet Week. Rachel itself, which peaked as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds on October 1 and 2, is forecast to weaken and come ashore over northern Baja California late Saturday, sending its moisture into Southern California, Nevada and Arizona rather than north to the Bay, SFNews.us reports, based on National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center data.

For people in San Francisco, the practical picture is a mostly dry, cooler and windier weekend with unusually high tides around midday, dangerous surf on every west-facing beach and a small chance of showers in the South Bay from Sunday evening into Monday. Below is what Rachel is doing, what it means for each part of the Bay Area, the exact high tide times, which beaches to avoid, how wind may affect Fleet Week, and a short checklist for anyone living or parking near the water.

Hurricane Rachel and the Bay Area at a glance

Where Hurricane Rachel is now and where it is going

Rachel began as a tropical depression in the eastern Pacific on September 27, became a tropical storm the same day and reached hurricane strength on September 30. It peaked as a Category 3 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph and a minimum pressure of 950 millibars, between October 1 and October 2, far from any coastline. By Thursday, October 8, it had weakened considerably: NBC 7 San Diego reported sustained winds of 65 mph, with the storm nearly 1,000 miles from the southern tip of Baja California.

The storm is now being steered by high pressure over the western United States and a dip in the jet stream. Forecasters expect it to turn to the northeast, slow down and then accelerate toward northern Baja California, losing its tropical characteristics as wind shear tears away its thunderstorms. Hurricane Center guidance shows landfall over northern Baja California late Saturday, October 10, after which Rachel is expected to become post-tropical over the peninsula by early next week.

Even as a weakening system, Rachel carries a large amount of moisture. Baja California could see 1 to 3 inches of rain. Fox Weather says the moisture will be pushed east across Southern California and the desert Southwest, with a Level 2 of 4 flash flood risk around Las Vegas and Phoenix, where 2 to 3 inches of rain are possible, and some of it could reach as far as Montana and northern Wyoming as snow. Higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada could also see snow as colder air arrives behind the system.

Why Rachel is not coming to San Francisco

Eastern Pacific hurricanes almost never reach Northern California as tropical systems. The ocean off the Bay Area is too cold to sustain them, and the prevailing steering winds tend to push them west into the open Pacific or, as with Rachel, northeast into Baja California and the Southwest. What does reach the Bay is the storm’s energy in the form of long-period swell, along with the broader weather pattern that steered it: the same trough pulling Rachel inland is also responsible for the cooler temperatures, stronger onshore winds and the slight chance of showers forecast for the weekend.

San Francisco weather forecast, Friday to Tuesday

The heat that pushed parts of the interior Bay Area into the 90s this week, prompting a Heat Advisory that expired on Thursday night, is ending. San Francisco itself reached a forecast 76 degrees on Thursday. From Friday, temperatures fall step by step to below seasonal averages, and the wind picks up.

Inland, Friday is cooler but still warm, with highs in the low to upper 80s in the valleys and the low 90s in the hottest interior spots, while coastal areas stay in the 60s to low 70s. The National Weather Service says fire weather remains elevated in the interior and higher terrain through Friday: humidity is higher than earlier in the week, but the wind keeps the risk up, and poor overnight humidity recovery on the highest peaks means fires could burn for long periods. Expect the coldest mornings of the season so far on Sunday and Monday, with lows in the mid 50s in the city and cooler in the valleys.

Will it rain in San Francisco this weekend?

Probably not in any meaningful way. The National Weather Service forecasts showers across the southern Bay Area and the Central Coast from Sunday evening into Monday, driven by an upper-level low and leftover moisture from Rachel, but says it is not expecting widespread measurable rainfall. San Francisco’s own forecast is dry throughout. If you have outdoor plans in San Jose, Santa Cruz or Monterey on Sunday night or Monday, keep a jacket in the car; north of the Golden Gate the chance is lower still.

Coastal Flood Advisory: high tide times and what floods

The more significant local effect is water, not rain. Astronomical high tides this week are already unusually high, and a storm surge of up to one foot is adding to them. The National Weather Service expects water up to 1.2 feet above ground in low-lying areas near the shoreline and tidal waterways, with flooded parking lots, parks and roads, isolated road closures and coastal trails underwater at high tide.

Heights are measured above mean lower low water at the San Francisco gauge at the Golden Gate. The timing of high tide varies by up to 90 minutes around the Bay: it arrives later the farther you go into the South Bay and San Pablo Bay, so in places such as Redwood City, Alviso, Alameda or Vallejo, allow for the peak to come an hour or more after the San Francisco time. Flooding usually lasts an hour or two either side of the peak.

Places that usually flood first

Tides of around seven feet have flooded parts of the San Francisco waterfront before. In January 2019, tides of about seven feet put the pillars near the Ferry Building, at 1 Ferry Building on The Embarcadero, underwater and forced the Port of San Francisco to close Pier 14 and a traffic lane on The Embarcadero. This weekend’s peak heights are similar, so walkers on the Embarcadero promenade between the Ferry Building and Pier 14 should expect puddling or spillover around midday.

Other low-lying spots around the Bay that regularly flood on high tides include stretches of the San Francisco Bay Trail, shoreline parks and marinas, and in Marin County the Manzanita Park and Ride at Highway 1 and Highway 101 near Mill Valley, which is often among the first places to go underwater. In the East Bay, shoreline parking lots and trails in Alameda, Richmond and San Leandro can see standing water. Never drive through flooded roads: about six inches of moving water is enough to make a car lose control, and saltwater damages brakes and electronics.

Fleet Week crowds and high tide

The midday tides coincide with Fleet Week. On Saturday and Sunday, high tide in San Francisco peaks around noon, just as the air show begins at noon on the Marina Green and crowds fill the waterfront at Aquatic Park, Fort Mason and Crissy Field. Low parts of the Crissy Field shoreline, the beach at Aquatic Park and lower steps on the waterfront may be wet; stand on higher ground and keep children away from the water’s edge. Our Fleet Week weekend guide lists the best places to watch, and our road closures guide has the transit changes.

Beach Hazards Statement: waves up to 16 feet

From Saturday morning to Monday afternoon, the National Weather Service warns of breaking waves up to 16 feet on west- and south-facing beaches, along with sneaker waves and strong rip currents. A long-period southerly swell generated by Rachel and other Pacific systems arrives from Friday, and a long-period northwesterly swell follows on Sunday. When the two meet, the sea becomes confused, with waves arriving from different directions and occasional much larger sets.

Sneaker waves are the main danger. They run much farther up the beach than the waves before them, without warning, and can knock adults off their feet and drag them into cold water. Every year people are swept off rocks and jetties on the Northern California coast during swells like this one.

How to stay safe on the coast

• Stay off jetties, piers, seawalls and rocks, including the rocks at Lands End and the breakwater at Pillar Point.
• Never turn your back on the ocean, and keep well above the highest line of wet sand.
• Keep dogs on a leash near the water. Many coastal rescues start with someone trying to save a dog.
• If you see someone in trouble, call 911 and do not go in after them. Point to them so rescuers can find them.
• If you are caught in a rip current, swim parallel to the shore until you are out of it, then swim back at an angle.
• Surfers should note that conditions at most breaks will be beyond intermediate level from Saturday to Monday.

We covered the same pattern earlier this year in our report on hazard alerts for northwest San Francisco beaches.

Wind: what it means for Fleet Week, boats and bikes

Saturday is the windiest day. The National Weather Service forecasts gusts of 30 to 40 mph along the coast and through wind-prone gaps, passes and valleys, with stronger local gusts possible, before winds ease late Sunday. In the city, the forecast for Saturday is a west wind of 10 to 17 mph with gusts to 25 mph, strongest in the afternoon. On the Golden Gate Bridge and along Crissy Field and Marina Boulevard, wind will feel noticeably stronger than downtown.

Fleet Week organizers decide on air show performances on the day, based on conditions over the Bay. Strong wind and low cloud can change routines or shorten displays, so check the official Fleet Week channels before you set off, and bring a wind layer rather than relying on Thursday’s warmth. Shade structures are allowed at the Presidio only if they are smaller than 5 by 5 feet and unstaked, and in Saturday’s wind anything larger is likely to blow over.

On the water

Offshore, marine winds reach strong to near-gale levels, with gale-force gusts over the northern outer waters and in the coastal jet off Point Reyes, building rough to very rough seas. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 3 a.m. to 3 p.m. on Friday from Point Arena to Point Reyes, 10 to 60 nautical miles offshore. Inside the Bay, private boats watching the air show should expect a choppy, crowded water surface and should leave the Golden Gate approaches to experienced skippers this weekend. Check ferry operators for any weather changes before traveling.

Cyclists and drivers

Crosswinds on the Golden Gate Bridge, the Bay Bridge and the San Mateo Bridge will be strong on Saturday afternoon, especially for high-sided vehicles, motorcycles and cyclists. On the Great Highway, blowing sand can reduce visibility and sometimes leads to closures; plan to use Sunset Boulevard instead if you are driving north-south on the west side.

Neighborhood by neighborhood: what the weekend will feel like

San Francisco’s microclimates matter more than usual this weekend, because the wind and the cooling arrive from the ocean side first. The same Saturday can feel like early winter at Ocean Beach and like a pleasant autumn day in the Mission.

Outer Sunset, Outer Richmond and the Great Highway

The western neighborhoods take the full force of the onshore wind and the big surf. Expect the coolest temperatures in the city, salt spray near the beach and blowing sand on the Great Highway and in the streets closest to it. The sound of the surf will carry several blocks inland on Saturday and Sunday nights. This is the part of the city where the Beach Hazards Statement applies most directly: stay well up the sand at Ocean Beach, and keep children and dogs back from the waterline.

Marina, Cow Hollow, Presidio and Fisherman’s Wharf

The northern waterfront is where wind, tide and crowds meet. The midday high tides coincide with the air show, and the open lawns of the Marina Green and Crissy Field are exposed to the westerly wind funnelling through the Golden Gate. A windbreaker, a hat that will not blow away and sunscreen are all sensible: the sky will be clear but the air cool. Low points along the shoreline paths at Crissy Field and around Aquatic Park may have standing water around noon.

Embarcadero, Financial District and Mission Bay

The Embarcadero promenade between the Ferry Building and the piers south of it is the stretch most likely to see spillover at the 11:50 a.m. to 1:14 p.m. high tides from Saturday to Tuesday. Mission Bay and the area around Chase Center, built on former tidelands, are better protected by seawalls but have low-lying edges along Mission Creek; avoid parking on the lowest waterfront lots during the midday peak.

Mission, Noe Valley, Bernal Heights and Potrero Hill

The eastern neighborhoods, sheltered by Twin Peaks and the hills, will be the warmest and least windy parts of the city. This is the best side of town for outdoor dining and park time on Saturday, with Dolores Park, Bernal Heights Park and the Potrero Hill parks the most comfortable options.

East Bay

Oakland, Berkeley and Richmond will be warmer than San Francisco but breezy on Saturday. Shoreline areas in Alameda, along the Oakland estuary and in Richmond’s marinas fall under the same coastal flood advisory; high tide arrives somewhat later than in San Francisco. Inland, in the Tri-Valley and Contra Costa valleys, the cooldown after this week’s heat will be the most noticeable, and the elevated fire risk lasts through Friday.

Peninsula and South Bay

Coastside towns from Pacifica to Half Moon Bay face the largest waves and the strongest wind. Bayside, low-lying areas around Redwood City, Foster City, Palo Alto’s Baylands and Alviso can see tidal flooding on trails and in parking areas, later in the day than in San Francisco. The South Bay has the best chance of a stray shower from Sunday evening into Monday.

North Bay

Marin’s ocean beaches, from Muir Beach to Stinson Beach and Point Reyes, are fully exposed to the swell. On the bay side, Sausalito’s waterfront, low-lying areas near Highway 101 in Mill Valley and the San Pablo Bay shoreline around Novato, Petaluma’s marshes and Vallejo are under coastal flood advisories, with the San Pablo Bay advisory running until 4 p.m. on Wednesday.

Why tides, swell and wind add up

Three separate things are happening at once. First, the astronomical tide: the position of the Moon and Sun makes this week’s midday high tides among the highest of the season, around seven feet at the San Francisco gauge. Second, storm surge: low pressure offshore and persistent wind pile extra water against the coast and into the Bay, adding up to about one foot. Third, swell: waves generated by distant storms, including Rachel, travel thousands of miles and arrive as long, powerful sets that break much higher than everyday surf.

On their own, each is manageable. Together, around midday from Saturday to Tuesday, they push water higher up beaches, over low seawalls and into low-lying parking lots and paths. By Wednesday the tides start to fall, the swell eases and the advisories expire.

What Rachel means for the rest of October

NBC 7 San Diego describes this as an unusually busy eastern Pacific hurricane season and links it to El Niño conditions, which warm the tropical Pacific and can feed more storms. For the Bay Area, El Niño winters are often, though not always, wetter than average, and forecasters will watch whether more tropical moisture is drawn north later in the autumn. For now, the forecast after Rachel is dry and mild, with highs in the mid 60s in San Francisco through the middle of next week. For seasonal context, our guide to San Francisco weather and microclimates explains why the city can be cold in summer and warm in autumn, and our Bay Area day trips list has inland ideas for a calm, sunny day.

Southern California, Las Vegas and travel

If you are traveling south this weekend, the picture is different. San Diego could see showers from late Saturday through Tuesday, with waves up to 7 feet on south-facing beaches and a coastal flood advisory in place through Tuesday; on Thursday, surf was already flooding onto Broadway and Coast Highway at Main Beach in Laguna Beach. Los Angeles may see some rain but is not currently in a flash flood risk area. The heaviest rain is expected in the desert, with a flash flood risk around Las Vegas and Phoenix, especially on Sunday.

Flights from SFO, Oakland and San Jose to Southern California, Las Vegas and Phoenix may be delayed by storms at the destination rather than in the Bay Area. On the other side of the country, Hurricane Isaias, the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2026 season, is expected to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday on the northern Gulf Coast between Gulfport, Mississippi, and Panama City, Florida, which may disrupt connections through Southern hubs.

Saturday, October 10, hour by hour

Saturday is the day when all of this overlaps, so here is how it is likely to unfold in San Francisco, combining the weather forecast, the tide table and the Fleet Week schedule.

What to wear and bring

Think late autumn, not summer. A windproof outer layer, a warm mid-layer, closed shoes rather than sandals for wet paths, sunglasses against glare off the water, sunscreen and a hat that ties or fits snugly. Leave umbrellas at home: rain is not expected in the city, and in 25 to 40 mph gusts they are useless. For children, a spare set of dry clothes is wise if you plan to be near Aquatic Park or Crissy Field at high tide.

Checklist for Bay Area residents

Where to get alerts and help

• AlertSF: text ALERTSF to 888-777 for San Francisco emergency alerts.
• SF311: call 311 or use the SF311 app to report flooding, fallen trees or blocked drains in San Francisco.
• National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area: weather.gov/mtr for advisories and the area forecast discussion.
• 511 Bay Area: 511.org for live traffic and transit.
• PG&E outage map: pge.com/outages if wind brings down power lines.
• Emergencies: 911.

San Francisco Public Works has in past storm seasons offered free sandbags to residents at its yard at 2323 Cesar Chavez Street; this advisory is about tidal flooding along the shoreline rather than rain, so sandbags are rarely needed inland, but check with 311 if your property has flooded on past king tides.

Planning the weekend around the weather

Friday is the warmest and calmest day for outdoor plans, with highs around 71 degrees and the Parade of Ships at 11 a.m. Saturday is sunny but cool and windy: good for the air show if you dress for it, poor for the beach. Sunday, with the Italian Heritage Parade in North Beach, is sunnier and less windy, and Monday’s Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples Day holiday looks mild and mostly sunny. For indoor alternatives, see our guide to San Francisco concerts this weekend, our Bay Area weekend guide and what is open on Monday, October 12. If you are using a robotaxi to reach the waterfront, read about Waymo’s Fleet Week restrictions, and if you leave your car near the water, our guide to San Francisco parking rules is worth a look.

Frequently asked questions

Will Hurricane Rachel hit San Francisco?

No. Rachel is forecast to come ashore over northern Baja California late Saturday, October 10, as a weakening tropical storm. The Bay Area will feel indirect effects: big surf, higher tides and wind.

Is there a coastal flood advisory in San Francisco?

Yes. The National Weather Service Coastal Flood Advisory for San Francisco and the San Francisco Bay shoreline runs from 9 a.m. Friday, October 9, to 3 p.m. Tuesday, October 13, with up to 1.2 feet of inundation possible in low-lying areas at high tide.

What time is high tide in San Francisco this weekend?

At 11:50 a.m. on Saturday, 12:18 p.m. on Sunday, 12:46 p.m. on Monday and 1:14 p.m. on Tuesday at the San Francisco gauge, with heights of about 7 feet.

Is it safe to go to Ocean Beach this weekend?

Walking well above the waterline is possible, but swimming and wading are dangerous. Breaking waves up to 16 feet, sneaker waves and strong rip currents are forecast from Saturday morning to Monday afternoon.

Will it rain in the Bay Area because of Rachel?

Only isolated showers are expected in the southern Bay Area and on the Central Coast from Sunday evening into Monday. San Francisco’s forecast is dry.

Will wind affect the Fleet Week air show?

Gusts of 30 to 40 mph are forecast on the coast on Saturday. Organizers decide on performances on the day, so check official Fleet Week updates before you go.

When does the cooler weather start?

Saturday. San Francisco’s high falls from 76 degrees on Thursday to 63 on Saturday, staying in the mid 60s through Tuesday.

Materials used: National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area area forecast discussion and Coastal Flood Advisory of October 8, 2026, National Weather Service point forecast for San Francisco, Zoom Earth storm tracker, NBC 7 San Diego, Fox Weather, Orange County Register, KTVU.